Forecasts Are More Art Than Science

According to our friends at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.  EA Sports boasts a 50% accuracy for the NFL and […]

We Dodged A Bullet

Well, I was wrong in May thinking we were heading off the fiscal cliff of no new borrowing:  America’s credit card was set to be rejected and sure enough, after no small amount of brinkmanship – again – we managed to avoid fiscal catastrophe.  One day we will all have to take this stuff seriously – yes, […]

How Far Down is the Bottom of the Cliff?

It’s hard to write these blogs sometimes – there so little good news except for my Denver Nuggets winning the Oscar Robertson Trophy for the first time in Denver Nuggets history!  Maybe that’s a good sign for the future ‘cuz with politicians vs. business women and men running our economy, we’re not getting any free throws. […]

What Makes a Strong Bank?

If we follow the weather person – March is in like a lion with all the turmoil in the banking markets.  We can only hope it will be out like a lamb.  We are not customers of Silicon Valley Bank or First Republic though we have done business with Signature – three very different stories with sadly […]

What was Old is New

History really does repeat itself – after all, we live on an enclosed social/political/ecosystem without a pipeline to another planet.  That results in a finite number of things we can do and the resulting outcomes. For example, Mikhail Gorbachev was running out of money with a teetering economy and he needed to be better friends with […]

Should I Borrow Money Today?

If you search for “debt” at you will find over 20 pages of suggestions including some of my favorites: Home life ceases to be free and beautiful as soon as it is founded on borrowing and debt. Henrik Ibsen – the same man that wrote “Peer Gynt” and “A Doll’s House” The United States can pay […]

Calculating Interest Rates:  #4 of 4:  The Swans on the Economic Lake

This will be my 4th post on the very convoluted topic of interest rates. There are so many factors that can and do influence their movement – from Jay Powell and the US Federal Reserve to the Right Honorable Jeremy Hunt, MP, as Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer to the market giants like Goldman Sachs and […]