It’s always interest rates…the cost of money!

The cost of money drives everything.  It ultimately determines the price of your home mortgage and that complex inverted lease funding your next solar project.  It can accelerate growth and employment on to the Rocketship Inflation or crush them into dust.  These are unassailable facts.  What is not so clear is where those rates are going under President Trump’s […]

The Election Year Blues

George Soros once said “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” and there are few things in life more uncertain than an election.  George went to the London School of Economics, a nice pedigree and it’s widely known the wealthiest […]

At the End of 2023…

Wow…this was quite the year!  I’ll spare you the visits to the politics, wars and similar rips to the fabric of humanity.  I will try and focus on some good old fashioned economic bon mots: Starting with the famed 10 Year Treasury benchmark…it’s been quite a ride: …and then the all too oft mentioned inverted yield curve […]

Forecasts Are More Art Than Science

According to our friends at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.  EA Sports boasts a 50% accuracy for the NFL and […]