…something new every day. Golly, it’s only mid-month with the 10 Year T moving from 4.01% to a 4.48% in two weeks – yup, a movement of nearly 12%. Then $3,263 for an ounce of gold that cost $43.05 in 1971 when President Nixon uncoupled from the gold standard…and if you invested $10,000 in gold in 1971 you’d have $757,955.90 today. Add the Dow Jones Industrial Average in April had the Highest Intraday Value: 42,382.27 on April 2, 2025 and the Lowest at 36,611.78 on April 7, 2025 – yet another nearly 16% shift in 5 days and I could go on and on but I’d need a Dramamine!
2025
1971
These are the gyrations that make for an interesting set of facts in which to plan for your business, your state and local governments and your home finances. Truth be told, it’s impossible to plan. What is possible is to prepare with building your models around what you know to be true today. For example, if gold is $3,363 an ounce today and you’re a jewelry maker, you need to plan that your ring or bracelet you’re making will be sellable at the margins you need at that cost of material.
What a minute – how the heck does that work for me here in My Town, USA? It’s easier than you might think: If you need a new police car and today’s interest rate is 4.38%, is that a cost of funds you can afford and do you have conviction that, if not, interest rates are going up or down during the time Police Inspector Henderson[i] needs that new car. And, based on the relative importance of that decision, you can take in more data to make refinements to your decision: The cost of inaction – postponing that purchase and paying for more gas and maintenance on the old cruiser; inflation as it impacts the price of a new squad car; will you miss catching the bad guys ‘cuz they have a newer and faster model; and, so on. A good primer on the subject is “How Big Things Get Done” by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner and I’d point you right to the bit about RCF or “reference class forecasting” and it’ll give you some ideas.
Anyway, buckle up – it’s a new economic environment out there whether your state is Red, Blue or Purple and the economic environment is everything.
“When I was young I thought that money was the most important thing in life; now that I am old I know that it is.” Oscar Wilde
[i] Any guesses who Inspector Henderson is…without peeking?